Nobel Prediction Market — Research as a Sport

Six markets, one per Nobel category. Buy shares in a candidate with BIPU; the share price is the market’s implied probability they win. Winner takes the season. Experimental scoring engine — no cash payouts, BIPU is in-game.

Experimental. Prices are implied probabilities from the LMSR market engine. Candidates are research predictions, not facts — everyone gets it wrong sometimes, and that’s the sport. Resolutions are recorded as receipts when the real Nobel announcements land.